レポート・参考情報

GDP growth will decrease in 2017 as sharp inflation increase restrains consumer demand, but in the medium-term the economy should benefit from reforms.

Reforms have been made to diversify the economy by developing manufacturing and providing a favourable investment environment. But stumbling blocks remain.

With the oil price well below its fiscal break-even level of around USD 78, the government still faces the challenge of keeping a tight grip on spending.

La lotta alla burocrazia e la riforma dei sistemi fiscali e di sovvenzione sono necessari per migliorare le condizioni economiche e ridurre l'alto tasso di disoccupazione.

Tackling bureaucracy and reforming the tax and subsidy systems are necessary to improve the economic conditions and to reduce the high unemployment rate.

So far the UAE has weathered the global oil price slump relatively well, supported by its increasingly diversified economy and ample foreign assets.

The Chinese chemicals industry has entered a phase of lower but still solid growth, with chemicals demand growth rates still above global average.

Producers are looking to take further advantage of low natural gas prices in the US, which enables the significant expansion of methane-based projects.

Profit margins of British chemicals businesses could be negatively affected by domestic economic uncertainty over the outcome of the Brexit negotiations.

The Italian chemicals industry continues to benefit from a rebound in domestic demand, however fiscal crimes plague the fuel wholesalers segment.

Despite a rebound agrichemicals remains susceptible to sudden changes of exogenous factors like climate, market prices and exchange rate fluctuations.

The sector records solid growth rates, but caution is advised with smaller fuel wholesalers and stations due to a grey economy in fuel trade in the past.

The robust economic growth has led to rising demand for petrochemical products, while the rubber and plastics are benefitting from automotive demand.

Indonesian chemicals sector growth is driven by demand from the construction and automotive industries and an increasing population with rising incomes.

The industry remains affected by the slowdown in the country´s economic performance, which has led to lower investments and decreased public spending.

Chemicals production growth is expected to increase about 2.5% in 2017 and 2018 while payment delays and insolvencies will remain at very low level.

Market sentiment is a vulnerability for South Africa due to its current account deficit and the dependency on portfolio-investments for financing it.

Despite the ongoing fragility a GDP rebound is forecast in 2017, and while some industries are expected to benefit from it, others remain subdued.

One year after the UK vote to leave the EU, cracks are beginning to show in the economy. This Atradius report offers an update on the current situation and insolvency outlook.

ICT sales growth is slowing down, and in some segments requests to prolong payment terms and overdue payments have increased since the end of 2015.

Despite robust growth rates, pricing pressure and cheap imports are key challenges in the domestic ICT market, especially for smaller IT distributors.

ICT growth is expected to slow down in 2017 as increased economic uncertainty is affecting household consumption growth and business investments.

It still remains to be seen to what extent the Trump administration´s policies will impact the US market for information and communication technology.

Despite overall growth, many French ICT companies face structurally low margins, price pressure and an on-going consolidation process in the market.

Due to limited organic growth opportunities and the on-going economic uncertainty, market players strive to expand through acquisitions and specialisation.

Despite continued sales growth, most German ICT businesses operate on very tight margins due to fierce competition and price erosion in most subsectors.

On average, payments in the ICT sector take between 30 and 90 days. Business culture promotes prompt payment, and therefore the number of delays is low.

Payment behaviour in the South Korean ICT sector has been good over the past two years, and the number of payment delays and insolvencies is low.

As in 2016 the ICT market remains characterised by high competition, single-digit margins, low entry barriers and stagnating growth in some segments.

The first hint of spring is in the air leaving this Economic Outlook in a position of cautious optimism.

After an increase of almost five percentage points in 2016, the percentage of overdue B2B invoices in Eastern Europe decreased again this year (41.5%).

The percentage of overdue B2B invoices in the Czech Republic continued its downward trend. In 2017, the country’s payment default rate stood at 37%.

The percentage of overdue B2B invoices in Hungary decreased in 2017. At 29.7%, the payment default rate in the country is far under the regional average.

Overdue B2B invoices occurred more often with the domestic customers of our Polish respondents (41.0%) than with their foreign customers (36.6%).

The percentage of overdue B2B invoices in Slovakia decreased from 48.0% in 2016 to 41.5% this year. This is in line with the regional average (41.5%).

Compared to one year ago when 57.1% of B2B invoices were reported to be overdue in Turkey, the percentage has decreased slightly in 2017 to 55.9%.

High uncertainty surrounding NAFTA renegotiations and other US policy directions in international trade, and specifically targeting Mexico, could adversely affect sentiment and investment.

Despite higher economic growth rate of about 2% is expected in 2017, business insolvencies are forecast to increase again in 2017, by 3% year-on-year.

In 2017 the number of Belgian business insolvencies will still be much higher than the levels seen before the start of the global credit crisis in 2008.

The Danish economy has regained some of its international competitiveness due to structural reforms that addressed the issue of high labour costs.

With more than 58,000 cases in 2016 the number of business insolvencies was still about 5% higher than before the start of the credit crisis in 2008.

Private consumption remains a key driver of growth in 2017, sustained by higher household purchasing power and further decreasing unemployment figures.

The Irish economy is expected to grow by more than 3% in 2017, but remains highly exposed to economic uncertainties stemming from the Brexit decision.

Italy´s GDP growth is expected to remain subdued in 2017 as international competitiveness remains an issue and the banking sector is still under pressure.

Solid economic growth is expected to continue in 2017 and 2018, but the Brexit decision will most probably affect Dutch industries in the mid-term.

The economic rebound is forecast to remain robust in 2017, but the number of insolvencies will remain at an elevated level despite further decreases.

Sweden´s economic growth is expected to slow down in 2017 to about 2% year-on-year, while business insolvencies are forecast to increase slightly.

Despite rising Swiss exports in 2016, export-oriented businesses production costs had risen relative to their export prices, squeezing profit levels.

In times of increased uncertainty the 7% insolvency decrease expected in 2017 is mainly due to statistical adjustments, but not economic resilience.

2017 is a major election year in Europe. Election gains of populist parties could undermine support for European cooperation and threaten reforms.