レポート・参考情報

On 15 November 2016, Atradius Credit Insurance hosted a webinar that looked at the opportunities available for trade with China and how to safely transact your business.

Overcapacity remains the main challenge, as the rebalancing of the economy from investment and export-driven growth towards private consumption continues.

The German steel and metals sector remains resilient with a competitive edge. However, major structural challenges and downside risks have increased.

Benefits from domestic steel demand growth will be offset by limits to raise sales prices due to the global steel overcapacity and cheap imports.

The Italian steel distributor segment has a large number of relatively small companies, which are still affected by weak demand and pressure on margins.

Fierce competition, high energy costs and increased uncertainty due to the Brexit decision continue to weigh on the financial strength of many businesses.

Banks are less willing to provide loans to the steel sector, given the high default rate and the recent debt impairment from one big steel manufacturers.

The US sector´s revenue performance remains negatively affected by the lower cost of imported steel and decreasing demand from the oil/gas industry.

The steel sector remains severely impacted by the ongoing domestic economic downturn, high interest rates, inflation, and exchange rate volatility.

A high level of competition, overcapacity and persistent low prices continue to affect revenues and margins of smaller French steel/metals traders.

External risk factors for the Mexican steel industry remain the volatility of the currency exchange rate and the impact of international metals prices.

The Dutch steel and metals sector has benefitted from a rebound in the building sector, but at the same time demand from the energy sector has decreased.

The level of protracted payments in the steel sector is high due to fierce competition, persistent pressure on margins and risky trading conditions.

Payment Practices Barometer for the Americas (NAFTA and Brazil) shows that 93% of respondents reported late payment from B2B customers over the past year.

In line with the survey average, 91.4% of respondents in Brazil (95.0% in 2015) reported late payment of invoices from B2B customers over the last 12 months.

While the economy is expected to slow down after a robust 4.6% in 2015, the forecast GDP growth rates of 2.5% in 2016 and 2.7% in 2017 are still solid.

Hungary´s economic growth is expected to rebound in 2017, after a slowdown in 2016, but the high level of external debt remains a major weakness.

Despite further growth, Poland is susceptible to a potential end of the eurozone recovery. Adverse economic policies could dampen investor sentiment.

The economic contraction continues in 2016, as investments and private consumption contract further. Only in 2017 a very modest rebound is expected.

Political risks have sharply increased, which could result in economic repercussions. Higher credit risks in the corporate sector are a major issue.

Looking at Russia, Atradius finds that oil price hardly matters for country risk.

The sector benefits from a robust performance of the Czech economy, but producers dependent on energy/mining and power engineering face difficulties.

The rebound that started in 2014 continues in 2016, but overcapacity still remains a real concern for the French machinery industry in the long-term.

The general outlook remains positive, and margins are relatively high, especially in niche segments. However,competition from China is increasing.

Competition remains strong in the domestic market, especially among small and medium-sized machinery companies dependent on construction businesses.

Key success factors for Danish machinery businesses is their ability to streamline costsand continued investment in product development/new technology.

The Turkish machinery sector faces some troubles, with sales under pressure since 2015. Political uncertainty leading to less capital expenditure.

Demand for Belgian machines and engineering businesses is still affected by the difficulties some major buyer industries are facing (e.g. construction).

The machinery sector mainly suffers from a massive decrease in public and private investments, especially in the construction and oil/gas sectors.

Payment behaviour has been good over the last two years and the number of payment delays, defaults and insolvencies is expected to remain low in 2016.

The Swedish machinery industry has shown several years of positive development. Machinery production is expected to grow 2.3% in 2016 and 0.9% in 2017.

US machinery businesses related to the oil/gas or the mining segments are affected by lower capital spending on purchasing machinery and equipment.

Insolvencies across advanced markets are forecast to be flat in 2016 and 2017.

The French chemicals sector continues to grow in 2016, but high labour costs and strict regualtions remain a burden and global competition is strong.

Most German chemicals businesses show robust solvency and liquidity figures, however in 2016 sales decline as producer prices continue to decrease.

The Italian chemicals industry benefits from a rebound in domestic demand, however businesses dependent on the construction sector still face higher risks.

Production is expected to rebound in 2016 after a 2.5% decrease in 2015, but Dutch chemcials businesses face increasing international competition.

The Belgian chemicals sector continues to grow, benefitting from structural resilience, but suffers from weakening competitiveness due to high labour costs.

The industry continues to grow in 2016, but the slowdown in key markets like China and Brazil could have a negative impact on some key subsectors.

The outlook for the Indian chemicals industry is positive, but there are liquidity and solvency issues with businesses in the trade and wholesale segment.

The US chemicals sector performs well, but the energy and fuel/oil subsector is in trouble, mainly affecting smaller and regional players in this segment.

The number of payment delays was high at the end of 2015, with financially weaker players leaving the market. Insolvencies are expected to level off.

Non-payments and business failures have increased, and are expected to rise further in the coming months. Many businesses suffer from decreasing margins.

The Industry Playing Fields provide a visual performance forecast for 14 different industries in countries paired together in the Euro 2016 tournament.

Lower GDP growth of 2.5% in 2016 and government budget hit by lower oil price. Public spending is curbed in order to trim the high budget deficit.

Weak economic situation and uncertain outlook as the security situation remains tense. Inflation is high and the business sentiment remains subdued.

A modest economic rebound expected in 2016, but fiscal consolidation remains difficult. Jordan remains heavily dependent on foreign donors support.

In 2016 economic growth will decrease to 3% due to less agriculture output and decreasing exports. In 2017 GDP is expected to rebound again, growing 4.5%.

The economy still has room to absorb the oil price slump, but a long-term period of low oil prices would hurt. Economic diversification is on the agenda.

A moderate economic rebound is expected in 2016 and 2017, given that the domestic security situation will not again hurt tourism and business sentiment.